By Florida Bill The Donald Trump phenomenon is unlike any other in American history. Starched white shirt and tie, and wild unruly hair, (he has allowed fans to tug at it to prove its genuineness), the 69-year-old billionaire has won the hearts and minds of millions who want him to become the nominee of the Republican party in next November's Presidential election. For a while it has looked like the iconic outsider had it sewed up. But what had appeared to be rock certain, has now become somewhat questionable.
He can win of course, by collecting 1,237 delegates allocated in the state primaries. Right now, he has 845 and needs to take in some 54 per cent of those 733 still on the tables in the remaining primaries which extend through June 7.
In recent weeks, Trump has been shooting himself in the foot with his gaffes and foolish twitter talk on the social media. Some say that his loose cannon mouth and non-stop tweeting has promoted a disconnect between his mouth and his brain, causing many voters to reject him. Nevertheless, in his home state of New York, he recently scored a resounding victory collecting 92 of the 95 delegates. But reaching the prescribed number of delegates may be problematic for Trump and if the convention is brokered, it may be goodbye to "The Donald"
There are compelling reasons to support Trump and his vision for a better and stronger America. He said the military would be rebuilt so that "no other country would ever mess with us." Obamacare, which he calls a disaster, will be repealed and ISIS will be totally destroyed. Muslim radicals will be identified and removed, and he excoriated bureaucrats who approved the agreement which handed $150 billion in previously frozen funds to Iran to use as it sees fit in exchange for a promise not to build a nuclear weapon for 10 years. That deal, which really highlights the ignorance of Obama and his secretary of state, will be renegotiated, he declared.
He promises to "Make America Great Again." His message taps into the frustrations of Americans disappointed with the policies and appeasement overtures of President Obama.
He has condemned America's open borders which have allowed illegal aliens, many of them thieves and rapists, to enter and to reside here with impunity, protected by Obama style courtesies in sanctuary cities. "There will be a great wall sealing the borders," said Trump, and illegal aliens will be deported in the same fashion as which occurred under former President Eisenhower in the 1950s. And he emphasized that, henceforth, whomever comes across the border into the USA, "will come in legally."
But is the big billionaire with all the answers turning off his supporters? It isn't only that he has slapped insulting names on virtually every Republican opponent in a fashion rich in high school pettiness, but he has flipped frequently on his policies and beliefs. He has made disturbing gaffes, and has failed to offer genuine explanations on how he will achieve the grandiose promises which he has made.
Is Trump's publicized feud with Fox News reporter Megyn Kelly becoming a negative thorn that could penetrate his armor? He has labeled Kelly a "Bimbo, incompetent and out to get him." Recently, Kelly and Trump have had a private meeting and there are indications hat they want to put the feud behind them. But then, who knows what's what with the irascible Trump.
Kelly had incurred the Trump wrath in the opening Republican debate last August when she asked Trump to explain why he had called some women, "fat pigs, slobs and disgusting animals." He refused to answer the question, but then dug deep and accused Kelly of having blood pouring from her eyes and from "everywhere." Refusing to back off, he continued his assault using the social airwaves ridiculing Kelly for her incompetence and for being out to get him. Is that the way a possible President should act? He attacks a reporter who has asked him tough questions. Former President Nixon hated the press with a passion, but he was always courteous when cornered by questioning reporters.
Fox News chief Roger Ailes has demanded that Trump apologize to Kelly for the way he has acted, noting that "your extreme, sick obsession with her (Megyn Kelly) is beneath the dignity of a presidential candidate who wants to occupy the highest office in the land."
There are about a dozen primaries still to be held. The final one with 172 delegates at stake will be on June 7 in California. It is no secret that Republican party heavyweights Mitt Romney, Carl Rove and Bill Kristol, editor of the conservative Weekly Standard, prefer almost anyone to Trump as nominee, believing that he would be easily defeated by the Democratic choice, Hillary Clinton. The outside chance that he might win is not a chance Republicans want to take. How can they forget the licking party candidate Barry Goldwater took in 1964? Trump is easily as divisive as Goldwater was.
. With no candidate with the prescribed 1,237 delegates the convention will be "brokered." As such, delegates will cast their votes as committed on the first ballot, and Trump will be short of the "magic number," which will then necessitate more ballots. After the first ballot, some delegates will have the option of switching their support to other candidates. At a brokered convention, even a candidate who has not run in the primaries, or who has run and then withdrawn, could be considered by delegates. Basically, if there is a brokered convention, anything goes, and the likelihood of a Trump selection as the nominee of the Republican party is against the odds.
Neither Sen.Ted Cruz with 559 committed delegates or Ohio Gov. John Kasich with 148 delegates have a mathematical chance of reaching the 1,237 number. Their only hope is a contested convention in which delegates on second and subsequent ballots endorse one of them. Only Trump could obtain the 1,237 which would assure his nomination on the first ballot. Cruz and Kasich have declared that Trump "will never be the Republican nominee."
In my opinion, Trump has behaved badly in the campaign, calling his opponents by insulting names and by avoiding explanations as to how he will put into effect the grandiose plans he is promising. His use of twitter as a vehicle to insult a media reporter is way beneath the demeanor expected of a man who wants to be President of the United States. If the convention is "brokered," I think that Trump will be the loser; and if he wants an explanation for the meltdown, he should look into a mirror.
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Donald Trump does make it hard to support him at times. The media makes it harder by exaggerating the negative things. Being from Colorado, I can agree partly with Trump's dissatisfaction with the Colorado primary process. I live here and I watch the news probably 14 hours a day but I don't watch the local news anymore. I didn't realize the Colorado republican voters were not going to be having a straw poll until mid January. I went to the straw poll in 2008 but in 2012, the friends I went with in 2008 had moved out of state so I missed out. The decision to eliminate the straw poll was made by the Colorado GOP last August because they didn't want the people of Colorado deciding on a candidate they didn't like. It was something to do with a law that said the delegates had to vote for whoever the voters selected no matter what.
ReplyDeleteOne thing Trump does is bring things to the surface that others overlook. I was really ticked off when I realized there was not going to be a straw poll for republicans in Colorado. My feelings really intensified last weekend when I saw clips of the GOP convention in Colorado and saw Ted Cruz talking about how the people of Colorado had spoken. No, the people of Colorado didn't have a say in the republican candidate. I actually like all of the GOP candidates. I actually liked just about all 17 of them.
Being in Colorado, I have had the luxury of not having to make up my mind on who I want to vote for. There have been a few times when I have leaned toward Trump then, he usually ends up shooting himself in the foot and then putting that foot into his mouth.
I have made a couple of observations about Trump though. Part of his persona comes from his New York background. The way he talks for example. Not just the accent but the words he uses. He tends to come off as loud and brash and uncouth, not polished and clever like Cruz or Rubio or calm like Kasich. I personally think Donald Trump has ADHD. I have it and I recognize some of the characteristics. The main thing is when you watch him in interviews - it is like you are seeing 10 conversations all at once. It's enough to make your head spin. I actually find myself laughing, not at his message but because I understand what is going on. Next, he typically blurts out the first thing that comes to mind. He's got the right ideas but tends to not use the right words to convey his message. .
I've always voted when I had the opportunity and I have always paid attention to the news. Watching the way the media and the "establishment" are trying to "help" us decide who to vote for is very troubling.
Trump exploded onto the political scene like no one in the past has done. You had to like his comments about criminal illegal's, etc. and that he would "make the country great again." Kelly hit him hard with his name calling of Rosie, but he could have handled it all much better. Instead, he became unglued and crude and insulting and Kelly shut up about it all and her star went up and Trump's fell. Trump fans are holding on for him, but their support is loosening. His twittering and other behavior continues to hurt him. His claims that he is being treated unfairly by the Republican party are in my judgment stupid and counter productive. Colorado makes its own rules as to how delegates are chosen, like it or not, and it was all agreed to before hand by Trump and his people. Makes me wonder who is advising him. The Republicans do not want him, and unless he comes up with 1,237,delegates, he is out. But they do not want Cruz either. My guess is that Kasich has been told by RNC to stay in the race and the delegates will give him the nod. Every poll is showing that he would beat Hillary. Anything can happen, but I do not see Trump getting the nomination, and if he does get it, he cannot beat Hillary; and that is the ghastly bottom line. Best to you Gale.
ReplyDeleteI keep holding onto hope that Hillary will not be running. My two favorite candidates were Rick Perry and Ben Carson. I totally agree that the RNC does not like Trump or Cruz. I think this political season has exposed some of the corrupt behind the scenes things going on.
ReplyDeleteI also agree that Trump can be crude, etc. Him calling Rosie a pig was actually kinder than anything I would have called her. She also said some disparaging things about him. I did not like when he went after Megyn Kelly. I watched that first debate and I saw nothing wrong with any of the questions any of the candidates were asked. The Trump supporters really got their noses out of joint on that. I am off the mind that the candidates need to be fully vetted. The questions the candidates were asked in that first debate were questions they would have been asked later by liberal moderators. Better to have those questions asked early.
Earlier this week Donald Trump and Megyn Kelly met and presumably made their peace. Megyn initiated the meeting and said it went well. Hopefully, they have a better relationship going forward.
There are actually certain things I really like about Donald Trump but, just when I feel myself climbing over the fence about him, he opens his mouth. I wish he would stop with the "lying Ted" crap. It has gotten very old. I really like that he is not politically correct.
Like you,Gail, I thought that most or all of the Republican candidates were good men, way better that Obama, Hillary or Sanders. I was kind of rooting for Rubio, but Trump and Christie destroyed him. Bush had all the money and support but Trump dismantled him and the country probably had had enough of the Bushes anyway. Carson, a good man, I figured was out from the beginning since the country was not about to get behind another black since the first one has been such a disaster.
ReplyDeleteI figure that the New York primary of next Tuesday will be telling. If Trump does not win by grabbing at least 60 per cent of the votes, he is toast. The convention will be brokered and who knows how that will play out. You can bet that there has already been a whole lot of behind the scenes maneuvering by Republican heavyweights.
In any case, Hillary has a huge problem winning against any Republican. She has so much baggage that it will be a field day for the GOP candidate. I am beginning to think that even Trump would beat her but it would be close in any case. I hope that that is not just wishful thinking.
As too often the case in my lifetime, I will in November be forced to choose between the lesser of two evils. I will hold my nose and vote for Donald Trump.
ReplyDeleteAt the Republican convention, Trump will either have the required 1,237 delegates or be so close that the few more he needs will shift to him on the second ballot after voting first for the nominee to whom they're committed. There will be no brokered convention: Delegates cannot -- WILL not -- ignore the will of the primary voters. Any attempt by party insiders to steal the nomination from Trump will defame the party in the eyes of all American voters and assure a Clinton victory, and her coattails might cost Republican control of the Congress.
Anyone who expects Hillary to be indicted as a result of the FBI investigation into her private server and classified e-mails is smoking hopium. Obama's Justice Department is far more concerned about admitting homosexuals into the restrooms of North Carolina ladies than in investigating Hillary or Benghazi or Fast & Furious or any other administration fiasco.
The polls and the pundits predict Clinton will defeat Trump in November, but just three-four months they predicted that Trump had no chance in the primaries. The Dems cannot count Trump out. As he has proven, he's too unpredictable.